It’s a classic problem. But that’s old news. A dire court verdict could bring the Sharif family war out into the open.Karachi: The rumour mill is in overdrive, everyone’s got a theory or two, folk are on the verge of eruption and conniptions. Plus, if you vacate Punjab, it sets off a headache-inducing succession scramble. The silly money is on Nawaz being ousted, temporarily or permanently, and a shattered N-League either hanging on till 2018 or being led to electoral slaughter immediately. It would also come at a particularly awkward moment.But No: 2 was rebuffed by No: 1 and you can bet it has lingered. They’ve tried to hush it up and bury it with public silliness and faux-affection, but there’s real tension. Wrap the electoral problem around the Sharif family drama and we may have delicious days ahead. There is only one path to power: a sweep of Punjab. All fun and games, really, and about par for the course for the average power family. The uber-administrator Shahbaz isn’t a vote-getter and hasn’t had the impulsive beaten out of him like Nawaz has.By arrangement with Dawn. So let’s jump on the bandwagon and try and figure out where this car crash is headed. But the always-present, ever-tricky question for N-Leaguers — align yourself with Nawaz or Shahbaz? There being no middle ground for most — is getting more complicated than ever.

The repudiation in 2013 set up a different game: the eventual switch to the next generation. And into that already most delicate of political calculations, add the Panama confusion: what if the court issues a dire verdict? Behind every circus here, there’s usually a bunch of hard-edged choices to be made. Until the Panama stuff appeared out of nowhere. You don’t have to be a Sharif to see that one side of the family really screwed up.

These should be good days for the PML(N) in Punjab.Obsessed as the N-League is with Imran and the PTI, the party is clearly seeing something on the ground. By 2013, the brother in Punjab had already tired of being No 2. There can only be one king and the other is sick of being a prince. Greed and incompetence are a toxic combination. Win or lose in court, the Sharifs and the N-League are primed for an almighty fight outside. See who all hedged their bets in 2013, opting for both a Punjab seat and Parliament. There were no geniuses in the second generation and the third has produced what appear to be extravagant, incompetent clowns. Fix electricity, tour the world, be the centre of attention. Zoom in to Punjab. Never a party of shrinking violets to begin with, the edge to the N-League’s politics of late suggests something else is going on. The N-League should be in a position to select whoever it wants for whichever seat it wants and possibly the runner-up and third place chap, too.

And it’s here where familia Sharif has botched it, so far. Panama is in the air. The smart money is on Nawaz surviving, but the family getting smacked around for its financial misdeeds/habits. Slip up by even 10 or 15 per cent in Punjab and there’s no obvious way to make up the difference in the other provinces. Nawaz may have had his reasons and may even have been right. It’s circus time again. The PPP has imploded and the PTI seems desultory and riven by factionalism. For a year now, the Sharif name and three generations of family have been dragged through the mud. But what after? And what has Panama done already? Let’s start with familia Sharif. Punjab is vast, but Punjab is also boring. Hamza has yet to impress, but he has quietly accumulated experience managing the party in Punjab. The margin between outright victory and a coalition government in the next Parliament is so thin that, effectively, the N-League has to approach White dyed fox fur faux fur fabric the election like it’s the PTI. May be even an imminent civil war. The ambition of Maryam has disrupted what should have been a relatively smooth transition after the other side of the family had championed Hamza as the heir apparent. The iffy money is on Maryam getting ensnared and knocked out of electoral contention for 2018. At the Centre, you get to play with the big boys